相信官员低迷的警告听起来像一个好消息。
来自澳门的博彩监管机构，博彩监察协调局的主任曼努埃尔若DAS内韦斯，告诉在澳门的《每日时报》说“昨天，在当地赌场行业应该结束了2011这一年的年收入增长”他真的好像是说什么增长35％以上，还说到“预计在今年年底收入增长会缓慢下来”。这是因为在2011年上半年市场的增长一直在43％，上一年的第一季度和第二季度则是以46％的速度增长。
也不能单独以季节性来看，内维斯先生给出了在2011年后半期增长可能放缓的提示。他曾经表示，过去人们都说每年的第四季度都会缓慢的降下来，澳门的速度比其他地区尤其明显。在最后一个季度，由于许多中国人往往为了还债和期待农历新年的假期，使得这样的情况通常在阴历一月下旬和二月上旬之间发生。这种下降的趋势在过去两年尚未出现过。2009年上一季度有所增长，从第三季度到第四季度的增长速度为14％。在2010年则为16％。2010年第四季度与上一年的同期相比增长了52％。按年GGR来说，在2009年第四季度增长了50％，虽然是以2008年作为统计起点，因为它受国际信贷危机的负面影响，因而不是很可靠。
内维斯先生说“这句描述可能是关于2011年下半年部分市场的表现——在35％以上“，当然这是保险的看法。从36％到100％，这可能意味着什么。但在投资市场更加有序和公职人员更加有组织的情况下，往往需要仔细掂量他们的话。选择35％作为他的基点，内维斯先生说“如果经济增长放缓，不要对此感到惊讶”。
内维斯先生是得知一些信息的，但他无法与我们分享。在这一点上，我们不能假设，如说在签证政策上对中国大陆政府方面做出一部分的的改变。在任何情况下，与澳门行业的人交谈，他们会告诉你，有许多方法可以绕过中国政府而给任何中国个人配给签证。在过去，每当签证抵达时，往往是大众市场的小人物。而正是这些人，北京要防止任何的诱惑，以保存他们的毕生积蓄。
但同样，我们不能假设，内维斯先生可能缺乏对澳门市场、中国的宏观经济背景、乃至街上的普通人都缺乏了解。
如果他给出的是一个增长会放缓的警告，投资者应该为此担心吗？这没有什么特别。如果你向他们提供按年GGR增长的35％，在拉斯维加斯和大西洋城的赌场经理会抓狂的。但是，我们毕竟生活在陌生的时代。投资者对市场的相应波动感到焦急。谁知道如何应对那些对在市场上增长率会减缓而提出的建议呢，当这样的增长在澳门仍然可能失控的时候。
译文
Trust a bureaucrat to make a downturn warning sound like good news.
When Manuel Joaquim das Neves, director of Macau’s gaming regulator, the DICJ, told the Macau Daily Times yesterday that the local casino industry should end 2011 with a year on year revenue growth of “above 35%” what he really seemed to be saying was ‘expect a slow down at the end of the year’。 That’s because in the first half of 2011 the market has been growing at the rate of 43% year-on-year in 1Q and 46% in 2Q.
Nor can seasonality alone account for Mr Neves’ hint of a possible slowdown in growth in the latter part of 2011. It used to be said that the fourth quarter of a year tended to be slower in Macau than other quarters. That was on the basis that in the final quarter many Chinese people tend to pay off debts and save even harder in anticipation of the Chinese New Year holidays that generally occur between late January and early February depending on the lunar calendar. Such downward trending has not been the case in the last two years. In 2009 the quarter on quarter growth from 3Q to 4Q was 14%. In 2010 it was 16%. In 4Q 2010 the year-on-year growth was 52%. In 4Q 2009 the year-on-year GGR growth was 50%, although 2008 is not very reliable as a statistical starting point as it was negatively affected by the international credit crisis.
Mr Neves’ phrase describing likely market performance in the latter part of 2011—“above 35%”—is of course typically cautious bureaucratspeak. It could mean anything from 36% to 100%. But public servants in the more orderly and organised investment markets tend to choose their words carefully. By choosing 35% as his base point, what Mr Neves really seems to be saying is “don’t be surprised if growth slows”。
We can’t assume at this point that Mr Neves is party to some information that he’s unable to share with us—such as say a change in visa policy on the part of the government on the Chinese mainland. In any case talk to anyone in the know in the Macau industry and they will tell you that high rollers in particular have ways of circumventing any rationing of China’s individual visit scheme visas. Whenever visa rationing arrived in the past, it tended to hit the little people in the mass market. These are precisely the people that Beijing wants to protect from any temptation to blow their life savings.
But equally we cannot assume that Mr Neves is as lacking in background insight about the Macau market and the Chinese macroeconomic picture as the average Joe in the street.
If he was obliquely warning of a slow down, should investors be worried? Not especially. Casino executives in Las Vegas and Atlantic City would bite your hand off if you offered them year-on-year GGR growth of 35%. But we live in strange times. Investors are nervous and markets are accordingly volatile. Who knows how markets may react to any suggestion of a Macau slow down—even it the hinted correction still assumes runaway growth?